Measles in the Period of Statistics

The history of measles for nearly a generation after the great epidemics of 1808 and 1811-12 is little known. No one in Glasgow continued Watt’s laborious tabulation of the causes of deaths in the numerous burial registers[1223]; nor was any regular account kept elsewhere except by the Parish Clerks of London. The following deaths by measles in their bills from 1813 to 1837, when the modern registration began, were probably no more than from a third to a half of the deaths in all London:

Year Measles
deaths

1813 550

1814 817

1815 711

1816 1106

1817 725

1818 728

1819 695

1820 720

1821 547

1822 712

1823 573

1824 966

1825 743

1826 774

1827 525

1828 736

1829 578

1830 479

1831 750

1832 675

1833 524

1834 528

1835 734

1836 404

1837 577

The inadequacy of these figures to the whole of London will appear from the fact that the registration returns under the new Act gave for the last six months of 1837 the measles deaths at 1354, while the bills of the Parish Clerks gave them at 577 for the whole year. But the old bills enable us to compare the deaths from different diseases within the same area and under the same system of collection, and to compare the deaths “within the bills” in a series of years since the last of the new parishes were taken in about the middle of the 18th century. Using the bills so far legitimately, we find that measles at length came to be of equal importance with smallpox itself as a cause of death in childhood, and that it had become a larger and steadier total from year to year.

So far as concerns Glasgow, the high mortality from 1807 to 1812, making 10·76 on an annual average of the deaths from all causes, was not maintained. When the tabulation of the causes of death was resumed from 1835, the annual average of measles for the five years ending 1839 was found to be only 6 per cent. of the deaths from all causes, the average of smallpox having come back to 5·3 per cent. During that unwholesome period, in which there was much distress among the working class and a great epidemic of typhus, measles and smallpox were dividing the infectious mortality of childhood somewhat equally, the age-incidence of measles being only a little lower than that of smallpox:

Ages of the Fatal Cases of Measles in Glasgow, 1835-39[1224].

Under one 1-2 2-5 5-10 10-20 20-30 30-40 40-50 Total

1835 116 141 121 34 10 4 — — 426

1836 86 209 183 38 1 1 — — 518

1837 77 133 122 16 2 1 350

1838 76 124 161 39 3 1 1 405

1839 165 259 275 73 7 2 1 783

520 866 863 200 23 9 1 1 2482

In Limerick, which may stand for a typically unhealthy Irish city in the worst period of over-population, there were many more deaths from smallpox among children than from measles, the age-incidence being nearly the same, according to the following dispensary statistics for a number of years before 1840[1225]:

Limerick Dispensary Deaths.

Age 0-5 5-10 10-15 15-20 Total

Smallpox 333 55 5 0 393

Measles 187 32 6 1 226

Scarlatina 8 2 10

Although it is impossible to prove it, yet the indications all point to measles having kept for a whole generation after 1808 the leading place among infantile causes of death which it then for the first time definitely took[1226]. Almost the only direct references to the subject were made by way of controverting the doctrine of Watt; but these are too meagre, or too general in their terms, to be of any use[1227]. The epidemics of measles seem to have travelled then, as they do now, from county to county in successive years. Thus in 1818, while most parts of England were or had recently been suffering from smallpox, the Eastern counties were suffering from measles “very frequent and fatal.” Smallpox at length reached Norwich in 1819, and became the reigning epidemic in the place of measles, which was “hardly met with” so long as the enormous mortality of the other disease proceeded[1228]. At Exeter in the spring of 1824 measles became epidemic after a long interval; many susceptible children had accumulated, and of these few escaped. The mortality was very great, and was caused by severe pulmonary inflammation, the catarrhal symptoms being mild. In one day seventeen children were buried in one of the five parish churchyards of the city; but that high mortality, according to the parochial surgeon, did not on an average stand for more than four deaths in one hundred cases[1229].

When the curtain rises, in the summer of 1837, upon the prevalence and distribution of diseases in England, as ascertained by the new system of registration of the causes of death, measles is found in the first place among the infectious maladies of childhood, thereafter yielding its place to smallpox for a year or more, and taking the lead again until it was passed by scarlatina.

Deaths by Measles and Smallpox in London, 1837-39.

1837 1838 1839

3rd Qr. 4th Qr. 1st Qr. 2nd Qr. 3rd Qr. 4th Qr. (four quarters)

Measles 822 532 173 96 94 225 2036

Smallpox 257 506 753 1145 1061 858 634

The epidemic of smallpox hardly touched the Eastern counties until 1839; so that while the home counties in that year had far more deaths by measles than by smallpox, Norfolk had only 72 deaths by the former against 820 deaths by the latter. In the same year measles took the lead in four out of six great English towns, scarlatina being the dominant infection in one (Sheffield), and smallpox in one (Bradford):

Deaths in 1839 by the three chief infections of Childhood.

Liverpool Manchester Leeds Birmingham Sheffield Bradford

Measles 401 773 383 170 33 70

Scarlatina 374 264 35 133 419 7

Smallpox 259 237 171 56 16 208

In all England and Wales during fully half-a-century of registration, measles has fluctuated somewhat from year to year but has not experienced a notable decline among the causes of infantile mortality (see the table at p. 614). In the decennial period 1871-80, its annual average death-rate was 377 per million living; in the next decennium it rose to 441, the previously high rates of scarlatina having fallen greatly. Among the highest rates for the ten years 1871-80, were those of Plymouth, 1·13 per 1000, East Stonehouse 1·79, and Devonport 1·19 (owing to a great epidemic in 1879-80), Exeter, 0·82, Liverpool ·91, Bedwelty (Tredegar and Aberystruth collieries) 0·88, Wigan 0·74, Whitehaven 0·71, Alverstoke 0·81. In the most recent period there have been some very high death-rates; thus at Jarrow the annual rate, which was only ·27 per 1000 from 1871 to 1880, rose in the nine years 1881 to 1889 to an annual average of ·94, having been made up almost wholly by great epidemics every other year—in 1883 (2·9), 1885 (2·4), 1887 (1·4), and 1889 (·9)[1230]. In the year 1888, an epidemic at Stoke-on-Trent, Hanley, &c. with 342 deaths, made a rate of 2·8 for the year; in Wolstanton, Burslem, &c., 221 deaths were equivalent to a rate of 2·6.

The latest reports of the Registrar-General have traced a progression of the epidemic of measles from county to county or from district to district in successive years, such as was remarked, both for smallpox and measles, by some of the 18th century epidemiologists in England, Scotland and Ireland.

Thus in 1890, measles was epidemic in Cheshire, South Lancashire and North Staffordshire; in 1891 it ceased in these, but became epidemic in North Lancashire, South Staffordshire and the West Riding; in 1892 it ceased in its last-mentioned area, and became epidemic in Warwickshire, Leicestershire, Derbyshire, the East and North Ridings, Westmoreland and Durham. During the same three years a similar progression or cycle was observable (on looking over the tables) in the South-west of England. The epidemic year of measles in Devonshire was 1889. It ceased there, and became epidemic in 1890 in Cornwall on the one side and in Somerset on the other, sparing Dorset. In 1891 it ceased to be epidemic in those parts of Cornwall and Somerset which it occupied in 1890, and became prevalent in the extreme west of Cornwall, in parts of Somerset, in Wiltshire and in Gloucestershire. In 1892 it ceased in all the last-mentioned excepting Gloucestershire, and became epidemic in Dorset, where there had been no severe prevalence of measles since 1888[1231].

Measles has no such decided preference for a season of the year as scarlatina and enteric fever have for autumn or infantile diarrhoea has for summer. But it often happens that most deaths are recorded from May to July, owing, doubtless, to the greater number of attacks in summer and not to any excessive fatality of that season. In London and the great industrial towns the deaths are spread somewhat uniformly over the year; or, in the language of statisticians, the maxima do not rise far above the mean of the year. In a tabulation of the weekly deaths in London from 1845 to 1874[1232], it appears that they touch a higher point in mid-winter (Nov.-Jan.) than in summer, a fact which may be readily accounted for by the injurious effects of the London air in winter upon a disease which is largely a trouble of the respiratory organs. In the great industrial populations of Lancashire, which resemble London in their high death-rate from measles, the rise of the deaths in mid-winter is almost the same as the summer increase[1233].

Most of the deaths from measles fall at present upon the ages from six months to three years, just as they did when the deaths were comparatively few, as at Manchester from 1768 to 1774. Deaths of adults, which were not altogether rare in the first great epidemic of modern times in 1808, are seldom heard of at present, for the same reason that adult deaths used to be uncommon in smallpox, namely, that the disease is passed by almost everyone in infancy or childhood. Although the deaths from measles sometimes reach large totals—in London during the spring of 1894 they were in some weeks as high as one hundred and fifty—yet it is the common experience of practitioners that a strong or healthy child rarely dies of measles, that the fatalities occur among the infants of weakly constitution, and especially in the numerous families of the working class in the most populous centres of mining, manufactures and shipping.

To bring these various characteristics of measles together in a concrete instance, I shall give briefly the facts of a recent epidemic in a town in Scotland of some twelve thousand inhabitants. There had been only five deaths from measles for two years. There had not been a case of smallpox for at least ten years. The measles epidemic, when its triennial opportunity came, reached a height in July, on a certain day of which month there were seven or eight burials from measles or its direct sequelae. Nearly all the children in the place who had not been through the measles in the corresponding epidemics of 1889 or 1887 suffered from it on this occasion, excepting the class of very young infants. The deaths in the whole epidemic numbered about fifty, which would not all be registered, however, as from measles. Yet this high mortality was not due to any unusual malignancy of the disease, but to the feeble stamina of a certain number of infants, or to the indifferent housing and tending of the poorer class. One did not hear of a death in the well-to-do families (probably there was none), although they had their full share of attacks. The frequency of the burials for a short time, and the effects of the epidemic on the mortality from first to last, must have been very nearly the same as in an epidemic of smallpox a century before, when the population was only a third or fourth part as large. But in the period when smallpox was in the ascendant, having few rivals among the infective causes of death in childhood, the general conditions of health in this town were altogether different. One or two specimens of the thatched huts of the poorer class had been left standing into the era of photography, so that we could compare past with present, in externals at least; also, of the houses of the richer class some still remained, perhaps turned into tenement-houses, with small windows, low doorways, and crow steps on their gables; and it was on record by the parish minister at the end of the 18th century, that within the memory of that generation there had been peat stacks and dunghills before the doors on the High Street of the burgh.